Climate change impacts on Bolivian agriculture: analysis of production vulnerability, emissions and adaptation challenges

Abstract

Climate change represents one of the main challenges for agriculture in Bolivia due to its impacts on temperature, precipitation patterns, and the increasing frequency of extreme weather events, all of which directly affect agricultural productivity and food security. This study analyzes the impacts of climate change on Bolivian agriculture across seven agroecological regions: Altiplano, inter-Andean valleys, Yungas, Amazon, Chiquitanía, Chaco, and eastern agricultural lowlands. It also evaluates different production systems, including smallholder farming, commercial agriculture, and forest-based and harvesting systems, as well as strategic crops for food security and economic importance. The analysis integrates climate information, scientific literature, and empirical evidence to identify differentiated impacts across regions, crops, and production systems. The results indicate that rising temperatures, precipitation variability, and increased frequency of extreme events affect agricultural production unevenly. Smallholder agriculture shows higher climate vulnerability, while commercial agriculture faces risks associated with large-scale extreme events. Additionally, food security crops such as potato, maize, and quinoa exhibit high climate sensitivity. The study highlights the need for differentiated adaptation strategies, territorial planning, and strengthened agricultural resilience to reduce sectoral vulnerability to climate change.